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VPS II vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:30

VPS II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

GBK

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.9%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.0%1-15.3%1-24.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.2%2-17.3%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.9%3-16.8%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-19.2%4+-28.0%4+-34.6%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 43.5% 2.30 +19.1%

Draw 18.7% 26.3% 3.80 -17.4%

Away win 29.5% 42.0% 2.38 -17.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 83.3% 1.20 -12.9%

Over 3.5 52.5% 66.7% 1.50 -21.3%

BTTS 67.8% 82.0% 1.22 -17.3%

Home O1.5 66.5% 66.7% 1.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.8%

H 52% / xG 2.8-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.4%

#3 1–2 4.6%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS II2.8

GBK1.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS II · PPG 2.00

GBK · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

VPS II (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +19.1%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.4%

GBK (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS II face GBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS II a 52% chance, the draw 19% and GBK 30%, so VPS II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for VPS II and 1.7 for GBK (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.89 for GBK. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.5%.

VPS II vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions