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JBK vs Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

JBK

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kraft

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.7%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.8%1-15.2%1-23.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-112.3%4+-28.4%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 76.9% 1.30 -16.8%

Draw 15.3% 20.8% 4.80 -15.9%

Away win 20.7% 13.3% 7.50 +33.1%

Over 2.5 71.8% 80.0% 1.25 -10.3%

Over 3.5 49.4% 61.7% 1.62 -20.0%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 78.1% 1.28 -1.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 4–1 5.9%

#5 1–2 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JBK3.0

Kraft1.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JBK · PPG 2.33

KRAFT · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

JBK (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -16.8%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -15.9%

Kraft (A) 20.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

JBK face Kraft in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JBK a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Kraft 21%, so JBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for JBK and 1.4 for Kraft (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JBK are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Kraft. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 5-0.

JBK vs Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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