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JBK vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

JBK

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

TP-47

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.6%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 62.1% 1.61 -6.3%

Draw 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

Away win 20.9% 26.0% 3.85 -11.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 78.7% 1.27 -24.4%

Over 3.5 36.5% 58.1% 1.72 -37.2%

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JBK2.1

TP-470.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JBK · PPG 2.25

TP-47 · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JBK (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -6.3%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.8%

TP-47 (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

JBK face TP-47 in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JBK a 58% chance, the draw 21% and TP-47 21%, so JBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for JBK and 0.9 for TP-47 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JBK are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.38 for TP-47.

JBK vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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