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Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

Surkhon

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+19.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.1%0-24.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.3%1-19.2%1-27.9%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.9%3-24.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 26.7% 3.75 +66.9%

Draw 22.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 33.5% 54.1% 1.85 -38.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 48.8% 2.05 +30.6%

Over 3.5 42.1% 29.2% 3.42 +44.0%

BTTS 64.3% 54.1% 1.85 +19.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 29.2% 3.42 +83.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 48.5% 2.06 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2✓ 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Surkhon1.8

Dinamo Samarqand1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SURKHON · PPG 1.33

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Surkhon (H) 44.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +66.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Dinamo Samarqand (A) 33.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -38.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Surkhon face Dinamo Samarqand in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Surkhon a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Dinamo Samarqand 34%, so Surkhon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Surkhon and 1.7 for Dinamo Samarqand (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Surkhon are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Dinamo Samarqand. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +116.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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