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Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

Surkhon

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.5%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-28.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.9%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 33.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 53.9% — — —

Away O1.5 48.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.9%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Surkhon1.7

Dinamo Samarqand1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SURKHON · PPG 1.33

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Surkhon (H) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dinamo Samarqand (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Surkhon face Dinamo Samarqand in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Surkhon a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Dinamo Samarqand 33%, so Surkhon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Surkhon and 1.7 for Dinamo Samarqand (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Surkhon are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Dinamo Samarqand.

Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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