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Navbahor vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

Navbahor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qizilqum

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-17.9%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navbahor1.5

Qizilqum0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.40

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Navbahor (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qizilqum (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Navbahor face Qizilqum in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navbahor a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Qizilqum 20%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Navbahor and 0.7 for Qizilqum (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navbahor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Qizilqum.

Navbahor vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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