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Navbahor vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

Navbahor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qizilqum

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-19.0%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-111.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 76.9% 1.30 -31.5%

Draw 27.3% 25.0% 4.00 +5.5%

Away win 20.1% 11.1% 9.00 +48.5%

Over 2.5 42.0% 48.8% 2.05 -13.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 29.9% 3.34 -14.9%

BTTS 47.7% 43.5% 2.30 +9.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 63.3% 1.58 -39.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 12.2% 8.20 +34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navbahor1.3

Qizilqum0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.40

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Navbahor (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -31.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.5%

Qizilqum (A) 20.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Navbahor face Qizilqum in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navbahor a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Qizilqum 20%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Navbahor and 0.6 for Qizilqum (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navbahor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Qizilqum. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Navbahor vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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