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Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30

Portland Timbers

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Dallas

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.2%0-24.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.4%1-18.1%1-27.6%1-34.7%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.7%3-15.0%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.7%4+-23.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 43.9% 2.28 +1.9%

Draw 21.6% 26.0% 3.85 -10.1%

Away win 33.7% 37.0% 2.70 -9.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 66.5% 72.5% 1.38 -8.2%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.1% 1.75 -2.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.6% 1.90 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.5%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2✓ 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers1.9

FC Dallas1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 1.67

FC DALLAS · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.1%

FC Dallas (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers a 45% chance, the draw 22% and FC Dallas 34%, so Portland Timbers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Portland Timbers and 1.9 for FC Dallas (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for FC Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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