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Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30

Portland Timbers

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Dallas

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.5%0-24.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.6%1-18.4%1-27.7%1-34.7%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.7%3-15.0%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.6%4+-23.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 43.9% 2.28 +1.7%

Draw 21.7% 26.0% 3.85 -9.9%

Away win 33.7% 37.3% 2.68 -9.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 67.6% 1.48 -0.8%

Over 3.5 44.3% 45.5% 2.20 -2.5%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Away O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers1.9

FC Dallas1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 1.67

FC DALLAS · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +1.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.9%

FC Dallas (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers a 45% chance, the draw 22% and FC Dallas 34%, so Portland Timbers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Portland Timbers and 1.8 for FC Dallas (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for FC Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%.

Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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