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Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:30

Austin

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

UPCOMING

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.9%0-26.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.0%1-111.8%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 36.2% 34.5% 2.90 +5.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 44.4% 2.25 -28.7%

BTTS 55.9% 69.4% 1.44 -19.5%

Home O1.5 38.7% 55.6% 1.80 -30.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin1.3

San Jose Earthquakes1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.50

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

San Jose Earthquakes (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face San Jose Earthquakes in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 39% chance, the draw 24% and San Jose Earthquakes 36%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Austin and 1.5 for San Jose Earthquakes (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for San Jose Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +9.1%.

Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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