Today / USA - MLS / Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5 68% chance
Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 110 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%
Form & verdict
SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.40
NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.10
xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Seattle Sounders face New York Red Bulls in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Sounders a 52% chance, the draw 24% and New York Red Bulls 24%, so Seattle Sounders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Seattle Sounders and 1.2 for New York Red Bulls (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Sounders are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.10 for New York Red Bulls.