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Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

Sporting KC II

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

St. Louis City II

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.0%0-26.6%0-34.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.0%1-29.3%1-35.7%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.0%2-26.5%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.3%3-23.1%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 26.3% 3.80 +6.3%

Draw 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.8%

Away win 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 44.8% 2.23 -9.7%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.9% 2.57 +2.5%

Away O1.5 58.3% 64.1% 1.56 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.5%

A 49% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting KC II1.4

St. Louis City II1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.92

ST. LOUIS CITY II · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting KC II (H) 29.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.8%

St. Louis City II (A) 49.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting KC II face St. Louis City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting KC II a 29% chance, the draw 22% and St. Louis City II 49%, so St. Louis City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting KC II and 1.9 for St. Louis City II (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting KC II are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.33 for St. Louis City II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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