Today / USA - MLS / Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution

Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:30

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

New England Revolution

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.0%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 43.5% 2.30 -15.4%

Draw 26.2% 26.3% 3.80 -0.3%

Away win 37.1% 40.0% 2.50 -7.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 44.4% 2.25 -28.9%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 50.0% 2.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 10.0%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles Galaxy1.3

New England Revolution1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.18

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 1.10

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles Galaxy (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.3%

New England Revolution (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy face New England Revolution in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 37% chance, the draw 26% and New England Revolution 37%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.2 for New England Revolution (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles Galaxy are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.10 for New England Revolution.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions