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Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:30

Real Salt Lake

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLL

UPCOMING

Los Angeles FC

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.8%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.7%1-112.5%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 38.2% 2.62 +11.9%

Draw 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -2.8%

Away win 30.8% 43.5% 2.30 -29.2%

Over 2.5 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 50.0% 2.00 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Salt Lake1.4

Los Angeles FC1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 2.20

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Salt Lake (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +11.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.8%

Los Angeles FC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Salt Lake face Los Angeles FC in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Salt Lake a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Los Angeles FC 31%, so Real Salt Lake are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Salt Lake and 1.2 for Los Angeles FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Salt Lake are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.18 for Los Angeles FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.7%.

Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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