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FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:30

FC Dallas

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

UPCOMING

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 75% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.5%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.3%1-14.8%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.5%2-17.7%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-016.1%4+-114.5%4+-26.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 71.4% 1.40 -3.3%

Draw 15.6% 20.8% 4.80 -15.1%

Away win 15.2% 16.7% 6.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 72.3% 69.4% 1.44 +4.1%

Over 3.5 50.8% 47.6% 2.10 +6.7%

BTTS 61.2% 62.5% 1.60 -2.1%

Home O1.5 77.9% 73.5% 1.36 +5.9%

Away O1.5 25.9% 29.4% 3.40 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob61.2%

H 69% / xG 3.2-0.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 1–1 4.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Dallas3.2

Sporting Kansas City0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.44

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.55 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Dallas (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.3%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -15.1%

Sporting Kansas City (A) 15.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Dallas face Sporting Kansas City in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Dallas a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Sporting Kansas City 15%, so FC Dallas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for FC Dallas and 0.9 for Sporting Kansas City (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Dallas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.55 for Sporting Kansas City. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +36.0%.

FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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