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Los Angeles FC II vs Ventura County Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:00

Los Angeles FC II

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

Ventura County

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.8%1-27.4%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Draw 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -15.7%

Away win 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 44.8% 52.1% 1.92 -14.0%

BTTS 63.5% 74.1% 1.35 -14.3%

Home O1.5 52.3% 61.0% 1.64 -14.2%

Away O1.5 47.6% 53.8% 1.86 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC II1.8

Ventura County1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC II · PPG 2.31

VENTURA COUNTY · PPG 1.36

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC II (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.7%

Ventura County (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC II face Ventura County in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC II a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Ventura County 35%, so Los Angeles FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Los Angeles FC II and 1.5 for Ventura County (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC II are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.36 for Ventura County.

Los Angeles FC II vs Ventura County Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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