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Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:30

Vancouver Whitecaps

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

UPCOMING

St. Louis City

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 70% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.6%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.2%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.1%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-16.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 69.4% 1.44 -5.5%

Draw 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

Away win 15.3% 18.2% 5.50 -9.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.4% 1.40 -7.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 30.8% 3.25 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 66% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver Whitecaps2.3

St. Louis City0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS · PPG 2.27

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.18

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.27 vs 1.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver Whitecaps (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -5.5%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -5.6%

St. Louis City (A) 15.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver Whitecaps face St. Louis City in USA - MLS on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 66% chance, the draw 19% and St. Louis City 15%, so Vancouver Whitecaps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.7 for St. Louis City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver Whitecaps are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.18 for St. Louis City.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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