Today / USA - MLS / San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS
Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 73% / xG 4.5-0.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.8%
Form & verdict
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 1.86
ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 0.50
Home team in GOOD form (1.86), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes face Orlando City SC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Orlando City SC 9%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.5 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.8 for Orlando City SC (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Orlando City SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +66.1%.