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San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Orlando City SC

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.4%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.0%1-11.7%1-20.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.7%2-13.9%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-028.9%4+-124.3%4+-210.2%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.6% 61.3% 1.63 +20.0%

Draw 17.0% 22.7% 4.40 -15.1%

Away win 9.4% 23.0% 4.35 -35.5%

Over 2.5 79.6% 74.1% 1.35 +7.5%

Over 3.5 61.3% 54.1% 1.85 +13.4%

BTTS 60.6% 72.5% 1.38 -16.4%

Home O1.5 77.8% 71.4% 1.40 +8.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 43.5% 2.30 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob60.6%

H 74% / xG 4.6-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.1%

#2 5–0 7.4%

#3 3–0 7.1%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 5–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Jose Earthquakes4.6

Orlando City SC0.8

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 1.86

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

76%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.73 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

San Jose Earthquakes (H) 73.6%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +20.0%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -15.1%

Orlando City SC (A) 9.4%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Jose Earthquakes face Orlando City SC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Orlando City SC 9%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.8 for Orlando City SC (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Orlando City SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-4.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions