Today / USA - MLS / Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City

Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Louis City

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.6%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 49.5% 2.02 -1.6%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 63.7% 1.57 -21.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 41.7% 2.40 -18.7%

BTTS 52.3% 67.6% 1.48 -22.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.1% 1.75 -14.4%

Away O1.5 29.2% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles Galaxy1.6

St. Louis City1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.12

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles Galaxy (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -1.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

St. Louis City (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy face St. Louis City in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 49% chance, the draw 26% and St. Louis City 26%, so Los Angeles Galaxy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.0 for St. Louis City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles Galaxy are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.75 for St. Louis City. This match finished 1-3.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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