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Los Angeles FC vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles FC logo
Los Angeles FC
PPG 2.00 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Real Salt Lake logo
Real Salt Lake
PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.5%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.5%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.3%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%
Draw 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%
Away win 23.1% 23.8% 4.20 -1.8%
Over 2.5 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%
Over 3.5 35.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.8%
BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%
Home O1.5 55.6% 63.7% 1.57 -12.7%
Away O1.5 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

League track record

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%
O2.5 67%
BTTS 33%
Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%
#2 2–1 9.9%
#3 2–0 9.9%
#4 1–0 10.4%
#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC1.9
Real Salt Lake1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.00

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 53.3%
ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.8%
Draw 23.6%
ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%
Real Salt Lake (A) 23.1%
ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Real Salt Lake 23%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Los Angeles FC and 1.0 for Real Salt Lake (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Real Salt Lake.

PredictVantage

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