Today / USA - MLS / Los Angeles FC vs Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 02:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5 65% chance
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 110 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%
Form & verdict
LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.00
REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.83
xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Los Angeles FC face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Real Salt Lake 23%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Los Angeles FC and 1.0 for Real Salt Lake (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Real Salt Lake. This match finished 3-1.