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Colorado Rapids vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:30

Colorado Rapids

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

San Diego

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.0%1-17.2%1-25.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.0%3-17.2%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.9%4+-25.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 52.6% 1.90 +3.0%

Draw 22.2% 25.3% 3.95 -7.4%

Away win 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 64.5% 71.4% 1.40 -9.7%

Home O1.5 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Away O1.5 42.5% 46.5% 2.15 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Rapids2.4

San Diego1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 1.50

SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Rapids (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +3.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.4%

San Diego (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Rapids face San Diego in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Rapids a 54% chance, the draw 22% and San Diego 24%, so Colorado Rapids are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Colorado Rapids and 1.4 for San Diego (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Rapids are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for San Diego. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Colorado Rapids vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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