Today / USA - MLS / Austin vs Seattle Sounders

Austin vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:30

Austin

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-112.2%0-26.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.7%2-17.4%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 32.8% 3.05 +24.4%

Draw 29.4% 27.0% 3.70 +5.3%

Away win 29.8% 47.2% 2.12 -22.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 60.6% 1.65 -22.8%

Over 3.5 26.7% 37.7% 2.65 -17.5%

BTTS 48.4% 64.5% 1.55 -25.0%

Home O1.5 35.4% 42.6% 2.35 -16.8%

Away O1.5 36.3% 54.1% 1.85 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin1.1

Seattle Sounders1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.57

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 40.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +24.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.3%

Seattle Sounders (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face Seattle Sounders in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Seattle Sounders 30%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Austin and 1.1 for Seattle Sounders (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.57 for Seattle Sounders. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Austin vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions