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Austin vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:30

Austin

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.1%0-26.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-17.4%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 35.5% 2.82 +15.1%

Draw 29.3% 27.8% 3.60 +3.3%

Away win 29.9% 43.9% 2.28 -19.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 58.8% 1.70 -20.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

BTTS 48.5% 63.7% 1.57 -23.9%

Home O1.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin1.1

Seattle Sounders1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.57

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.57

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +15.1%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.3%

Seattle Sounders (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face Seattle Sounders in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Seattle Sounders 30%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Austin and 1.1 for Seattle Sounders (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.57 for Seattle Sounders. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Austin vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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