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Houston Dynamo vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Houston Dynamo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

DC United

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.7%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.0%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 55.2% 1.81 -15.8%

Draw 25.3% 26.3% 3.80 -2.3%

Away win 28.3% 25.0% 4.00 +7.9%

Over 2.5 55.3% 58.8% 1.70 -6.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 57.1% 1.75 -17.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo1.6

DC United1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 2.14

DC UNITED · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -15.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.3%

DC United (A) 28.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo face DC United in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo a 47% chance, the draw 25% and DC United 28%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Houston Dynamo and 1.1 for DC United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.25 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Houston Dynamo vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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