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Houston Dynamo vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Houston Dynamo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

DC United

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.8%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.1%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 55.2% 1.81 -16.0%

Draw 25.3% 26.7% 3.75 -3.1%

Away win 28.3% 25.0% 4.00 +7.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 45.8% 57.1% 1.75 -19.9%

Away O1.5 36.3% 34.5% 2.90 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo1.5

DC United1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 2.14

DC UNITED · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -16.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.1%

DC United (A) 28.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo face DC United in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo a 46% chance, the draw 25% and DC United 28%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Houston Dynamo and 1.1 for DC United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.25 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Houston Dynamo vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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