Today / USA - MLS / Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.5%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.7%1-110.9%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 33.6% 2.98 +12.3%

Draw 25.3% 26.3% 3.80 -2.3%

Away win 37.0% 47.2% 2.12 -21.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.6% 42.0% 2.38 -5.8%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Away O1.5 49.0% 56.5% 1.77 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Kansas City1.5

Minnesota United FC1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.71

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Kansas City (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +12.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.3%

Minnesota United FC (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Kansas City face Minnesota United FC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Kansas City a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Minnesota United FC 37%, so Sporting Kansas City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.6 for Minnesota United FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Kansas City are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.62 for Minnesota United FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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