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Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.7%0-26.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.9%1-111.0%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 30.3% 3.30 +25.1%

Draw 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

Away win 36.7% 50.8% 1.97 -27.7%

Over 2.5 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Over 3.5 37.7% 42.6% 2.35 -11.4%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 45.8% 43.5% 2.30 +5.3%

Away O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Kansas City1.4

Minnesota United FC1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.71

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.62) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Kansas City (H) 37.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +25.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.3%

Minnesota United FC (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Kansas City face Minnesota United FC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Kansas City a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Minnesota United FC 37%, so Sporting Kansas City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.6 for Minnesota United FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Kansas City are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.62 for Minnesota United FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.1%.

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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