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Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Nashville SC

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

CF Montreal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.9%1-13.8%1-21.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.6%2-16.6%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-17.7%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-021.5%4+-116.5%4+-26.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 68.5% 1.46 +7.0%

Draw 17.3% 22.7% 4.40 -14.3%

Away win 9.4% 15.4% 6.50 -23.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 63.7% 1.57 +14.0%

Over 3.5 49.5% 41.7% 2.40 +18.8%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 76.8% 69.0% 1.45 +11.4%

Away O1.5 20.7% 28.2% 3.55 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.5-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.0%

#2 4–0 8.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nashville SC3.5

CF Montreal0.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.75

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.75), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nashville SC (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV +7.0%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -14.3%

CF Montreal (A) 9.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nashville SC face CF Montreal in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nashville SC a 73% chance, the draw 17% and CF Montreal 9%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Nashville SC and 0.8 for CF Montreal (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nashville SC are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.50 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.0%.

Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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