Today / USA - MLS / Nashville SC vs CF Montreal

Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Nashville SC

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

CF Montreal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.6%1-13.6%1-21.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-16.4%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-17.6%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-117.2%4+-26.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 68.0% 1.47 +7.8%

Draw 17.3% 22.2% 4.50 -13.3%

Away win 9.5% 16.7% 6.00 -25.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 63.7% 1.57 +14.0%

Over 3.5 52.0% 41.7% 2.40 +24.8%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 67.6% 1.48 +14.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.6-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 4–0 8.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nashville SC3.6

CF Montreal0.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.75

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nashville SC (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV +7.8%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -13.3%

CF Montreal (A) 9.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nashville SC face CF Montreal in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nashville SC a 73% chance, the draw 17% and CF Montreal 10%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Nashville SC and 0.8 for CF Montreal (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nashville SC are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.50 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions