Today / USA - MLS / Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:15

Charlotte

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-19.7%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.2%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 47.6% 2.10 +23.9%

Draw 22.2% 28.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Away win 18.8% 31.3% 3.20 -23.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 60.6% 1.65 -16.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 38.2% 2.62 -13.6%

BTTS 48.5% 64.5% 1.55 -24.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 54.1% 1.85 +3.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 42.0% 2.38 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte2.0

Atlanta United FC0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.89

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 59.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +23.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Atlanta United FC (A) 18.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Atlanta United FC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Atlanta United FC 19%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Charlotte and 0.7 for Atlanta United FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.57 for Atlanta United FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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