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Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:15

Charlotte

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.1%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.8%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.1%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 52.6% 1.90 +11.2%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 19.0% 27.4% 3.65 -18.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

BTTS 48.4% 63.7% 1.57 -24.0%

Home O1.5 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Away O1.5 20.7% 38.2% 2.62 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte1.9

Atlanta United FC0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.89

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.57

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=58.5%

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 58.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +11.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Atlanta United FC (A) 19.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Atlanta United FC in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Atlanta United FC 19%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Charlotte and 0.7 for Atlanta United FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.57 for Atlanta United FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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