Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Maitland vs Weston Bears

Maitland vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Round of 16 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:00

Maitland

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Weston Bears

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.9%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.2%1-110.4%1-28.8%1-34.9%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-17.9%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.3%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

Away win 39.4% 48.8% 2.05 -19.2%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.4% 1.44 -13.9%

Over 3.5 36.7% 51.3% 1.95 -28.4%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 52.4% 1.91 -23.6%

Away O1.5 48.5% 59.5% 1.68 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.5

Weston Bears1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.64

WESTON BEARS · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.9%

Weston Bears (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Weston Bears in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Weston Bears 39%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maitland and 1.7 for Weston Bears (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.18 for Weston Bears.

Maitland vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions