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Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 04:00

Maitland

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Edgeworth Eagles

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.6%0-25.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.9%1-110.6%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 41.7% 2.40 +2.7%

Draw 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Away win 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Over 3.5 36.5% 48.1% 2.08 -24.1%

BTTS 61.6% 73.0% 1.37 -15.6%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.3% 1.84 -13.2%

Away O1.5 47.3% 55.2% 1.81 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.6

Edgeworth Eagles1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.50

EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

Edgeworth Eagles (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Edgeworth Eagles in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Edgeworth Eagles 34%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Maitland and 1.5 for Edgeworth Eagles (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Edgeworth Eagles.

Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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