Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles

Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 06:00

Maitland

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Edgeworth Eagles

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.3%0-24.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.9%1-19.5%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.2%3-15.2%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

Draw 22.6% 28.6% 3.50 -12.5%

Away win 34.4% 42.9% 2.33 -19.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.2% 2.43 -4.5%

BTTS 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Home O1.5 49.1% 47.4% 2.11 +3.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.8% 1.97 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1✓ 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.8

Edgeworth Eagles1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.58

EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.5%

Edgeworth Eagles (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Edgeworth Eagles in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Edgeworth Eagles 34%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Maitland and 1.6 for Edgeworth Eagles (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.00 for Edgeworth Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Maitland vs Edgeworth Eagles Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions