Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea

Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Round of 16 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 03:00

Edgeworth Eagles

PPG 2.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.7%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.5%1-18.1%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.2%4+-24.6%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 26.6% 26.3% 3.80 +0.7%

Over 2.5 64.9% 69.4% 1.44 -6.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 68.5% 1.46 -5.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth Eagles2.2

Belmont Swansea1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 2.55

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth Eagles (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -13.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Belmont Swansea (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth Eagles face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth Eagles a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Belmont Swansea 27%, so Edgeworth Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Edgeworth Eagles and 1.5 for Belmont Swansea (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth Eagles are averaging 2.55 points per game versus 1.36 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions