Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Belmont Swansea vs Adamstown Rosebuds
Belmont Swansea vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW
Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 04:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 55% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%
Form & verdict
BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 2.00
ADAMSTOWN ROSEBUDS · PPG 0.90
xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Belmont Swansea face Adamstown Rosebuds in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Adamstown Rosebuds 24%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Belmont Swansea and 1.6 for Adamstown Rosebuds (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Adamstown Rosebuds. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.6%.