Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Broadmeadow Magic vs Weston Bears

Broadmeadow Magic vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 06:00

Broadmeadow Magic

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Weston Bears

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.5%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.0%1-18.1%1-25.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.2%3-17.1%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.0%4+-24.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Over 2.5 64.6% 71.4% 1.40 -9.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 52.4% 1.91 -17.5%

BTTS 62.0% 73.5% 1.36 -15.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 67.6% 1.48 -2.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.9% 2.13 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.0%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow Magic2.3

Weston Bears1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW MAGIC · PPG 2.18

WESTON BEARS · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow Magic (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Weston Bears (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow Magic face Weston Bears in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow Magic a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 24%, so Broadmeadow Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Broadmeadow Magic and 1.4 for Weston Bears (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow Magic are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 2.08 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.3%.

Broadmeadow Magic vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions