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Broadmeadow Magic vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Semi-finals ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 05:00

Broadmeadow Magic

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maitland

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.8%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.8%1-17.0%1-25.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.0%3-17.3%3-25.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.3%4+-26.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 46.2% 49.5% 2.02 -6.7%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 68.0% 1.47 -2.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 41.7% 2.40 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow Magic2.5

Maitland1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW MAGIC · PPG 2.00

MAITLAND · PPG 2.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow Magic (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -8.6%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Maitland (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow Magic face Maitland in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow Magic a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Maitland 24%, so Broadmeadow Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Broadmeadow Magic and 1.5 for Maitland (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow Magic are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.18 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Broadmeadow Magic vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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