Today / USA - MLS / New England Revolution vs Toronto FC

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30

New England Revolution

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Toronto FC

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 60% chance

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-18.4%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.4%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.3%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 57.8% 1.73 +1.4%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 19.7% 22.2% 4.50 -6.8%

Over 2.5 61.9% 58.8% 1.70 +5.2%

Over 3.5 39.9% 35.7% 2.80 +11.7%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 58.8% 1.70 +5.1%

Away O1.5 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England Revolution2.3

Toronto FC0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.62

TORONTO FC · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New England Revolution (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +1.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

Toronto FC (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England Revolution face Toronto FC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Toronto FC 20%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for New England Revolution and 0.9 for Toronto FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.67 for Toronto FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 0-0.

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions