Today / USA - MLS / New England Revolution vs Toronto FC

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30

New England Revolution

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Toronto FC

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.0%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.8%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.2%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.6%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 57.8% 1.73 -0.5%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 20.2% 22.2% 4.50 -5.5%

Over 2.5 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 35.7% 2.80 +5.0%

BTTS 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

Home O1.5 62.2% 58.8% 1.70 +5.7%

Away O1.5 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.2%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England Revolution2.2

Toronto FC0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.62

TORONTO FC · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.62) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

New England Revolution (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -0.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Toronto FC (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England Revolution face Toronto FC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Toronto FC 20%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for New England Revolution and 0.9 for Toronto FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.67 for Toronto FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%.

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions