Today / USA - MLS / Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
BTTS 66% chance
Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 110 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%
Form & verdict
PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.50
NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.38
xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Philadelphia Union face New York Red Bulls in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 44% chance, the draw 24% and New York Red Bulls 32%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Philadelphia Union and 1.5 for New York Red Bulls (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.38 for New York Red Bulls. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 3-1.