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Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia Union

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.8%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.8%1-111.0%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.8%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 57.8% 1.73 -23.4%

Draw 24.5% 24.4% 4.10 +0.3%

Away win 31.2% 25.0% 4.00 +24.8%

Over 2.5 56.6% 67.6% 1.48 -16.2%

Over 3.5 35.8% 45.5% 2.20 -21.2%

BTTS 58.0% 67.6% 1.48 -14.2%

Home O1.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Away O1.5 40.6% 40.8% 2.45 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.0%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union1.6

New York Red Bulls1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.50

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.38

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.38) strong but model favors Home (P=44.3%)

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -23.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.3%

New York Red Bulls (A) 31.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union face New York Red Bulls in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 44% chance, the draw 25% and New York Red Bulls 31%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Philadelphia Union and 1.4 for New York Red Bulls (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.38 for New York Red Bulls. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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