Today / USA - MLS / Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
BTTS 59% chance
Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 110 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%
Form & verdict
COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.57
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.14
xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Columbus Crew face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 46% chance, the draw 27% and New York City FC 27%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Columbus Crew and 1.1 for New York City FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-2.