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Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew logo
Columbus Crew
PPG 1.57 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
New York City FC logo
New York City FC
PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.2%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.8%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%
Draw 26.8% 27.4% 3.65 -1.3%
Away win 27.2% 27.0% 3.70 +0.4%
Over 2.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%
Over 3.5 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.6%
BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%
Home O1.5 41.0% 55.6% 1.80 -26.2%
Away O1.5 34.9% 36.4% 2.75 -4.0%

League track record

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%
O2.5 67%
BTTS 33%
Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%
#2 0–0 8.9%
#3 1–0 12.3%
#4 2–1 8.8%
#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.4
New York City FC1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.57

NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 46.0%
ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.6%
Draw 26.8%
ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.3%
New York City FC (A) 27.2%
ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 46% chance, the draw 27% and New York City FC 27%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Columbus Crew and 1.0 for New York City FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%.

PredictVantage

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