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Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 21:30

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 79% chance

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-17.3%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.6%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-18.7%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 83.3% 1.20 -18.9%

Draw 17.5% 17.4% 5.75 +0.4%

Away win 15.0% 6.5% 15.50 +79.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 39.2% 2.55 +5.3%

BTTS 53.7% 44.4% 2.25 +20.8%

Home O1.5 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 14.3% 7.00 +24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.7%

H 68% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0✓ 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.5

Tecnico Universitario0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.20

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

79%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -18.9%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +0.4%

Tecnico Universitario (A) 15.0%

ODDS 15.50 · IMPLIED 6.5% EV +79.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Tecnico Universitario in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Tecnico Universitario 15%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Independiente del Valle and 0.8 for Tecnico Universitario (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Tecnico Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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