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Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 21:30

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-17.3%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.6%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-18.6%4+-23.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 84.7% 1.18 -20.2%

Draw 17.5% 16.9% 5.90 +1.9%

Away win 14.9% 5.6% 18.00 +100.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 41.3% 42.0% 2.38 -1.7%

BTTS 53.2% 44.4% 2.25 +19.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 78.1% 1.28 -19.5%

Away O1.5 20.7% 15.4% 6.50 +20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.2%

H 68% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.5

Tecnico Universitario0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.20

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +1.9%

Tecnico Universitario (A) 14.9%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +100.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Tecnico Universitario in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Tecnico Universitario 15%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Independiente del Valle and 0.8 for Tecnico Universitario (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Tecnico Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +100.9%.

Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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