Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca

Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 19:00

Macara

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-110.4%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-17.8%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 46.3% 2.16 +0.2%

Draw 29.5% 32.8% 3.05 -6.0%

Away win 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Over 2.5 42.0% 40.8% 2.45 +2.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% 21.1% 4.75 +3.8%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 37.0% 40.0% 2.50 -7.5%

Away O1.5 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.2

Deportivo Cuenca0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.70

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.0%

Deportivo Cuenca (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Deportivo Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Deportivo Cuenca 24%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Macara and 0.7 for Deportivo Cuenca (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.60 for Deportivo Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.8%.

Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions