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Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 19:00

Macara

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.1%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 46.3% 2.16 +0.7%

Draw 29.4% 32.8% 3.05 -6.2%

Away win 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Over 2.5 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 38.0% 40.0% 2.50 -5.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.3

Deportivo Cuenca0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.70

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +0.7%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.2%

Deportivo Cuenca (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Deportivo Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Cuenca 24%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Macara and 0.8 for Deportivo Cuenca (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.60 for Deportivo Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Macara vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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