Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / Jaro 2 vs GBK

Jaro 2 vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C · Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 15:30

Jaro 2

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

GBK

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 83% chance

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.2% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.4%0-21.7%0-31.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-01.6%1-13.9%1-24.6%1-33.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.2%2-15.3%2-26.3%2-35.1%2-4+5.3%3 3-02.0%3-14.9%3-25.8%3-34.6%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-16.5%4+-27.7%4+-36.1%4+-4+6.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

Draw 20.2% 25.0% 4.00 -11.5%

Away win 33.0% 41.7% 2.40 -20.8%

Over 2.5 78.2% 85.5% 1.17 -8.5%

Over 3.5 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

BTTS 69.5% 82.0% 1.22 -15.2%

Home O1.5 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Away O1.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.5%

H 47% / xG 2.7-2.4 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 3–2 5.8%

#3 2–1 5.3%

#4 2–3 5.1%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro 22.7

GBK2.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.2% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO 2 · PPG 2.50

GBK · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

83%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jaro 2 (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.5%

GBK (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro 2 face GBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro 2 a 47% chance, the draw 20% and GBK 33%, so Jaro 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Jaro 2 and 2.4 for GBK (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro 2 are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for GBK. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Jaro 2 vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions