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Jaro 2 vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 15:30

Jaro 2

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

GBK

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.4%0-20.6%0-30.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-00.4%1-11.3%1-22.1%1-32.2%1-4+3.9%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-23.8%2-34.0%2-4+7.0%3 3-00.9%3-12.8%3-24.5%3-34.7%3-4+8.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-16.4%4+-210.2%4+-310.8%4+-4+18.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 43.5% 2.30 +12.0%

Draw 17.1% 23.8% 4.20 -16.9%

Away win 34.2% 44.4% 2.25 -23.1%

Over 2.5 79.4% 87.7% 1.14 -9.5%

Over 3.5 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

BTTS 72.7% 85.5% 1.17 -14.9%

Home O1.5 76.8% — — —

Away O1.5 68.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -2.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob72.7%

H 49% / xG 3.6-3.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–3 4.7%

#2 3–2 4.5%

#3 4–3 4.3%

#4 4–2 4.0%

#5 2–3 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro 23.6

GBK3.2

COMBINED 6.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.4% · O3.5 PROB 69.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO 2 · PPG 2.50

GBK · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro 2 (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.0%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.9%

GBK (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro 2 face GBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro 2 a 49% chance, the draw 17% and GBK 34%, so Jaro 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Jaro 2 and 3.2 for GBK (6.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro 2 are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for GBK. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.0%.

Jaro 2 vs GBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions