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Mash'al vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 15:00

Mash'al

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Nasaf

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Away 63% chance

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-119.8%0-215.3%0-37.9%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.5%1-110.1%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-01.7%2-12.6%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% 18.2% 5.50 -12.5%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Over 2.5 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Over 3.5 23.6% 26.2% 3.82 -5.9%

BTTS 46.7% 48.8% 2.05 -4.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 19.6% 5.10 +69.8%

Away O1.5 49.0% 53.8% 1.86 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob46.7%

A 60% / xG 0.5-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.8%

#2 0–2 15.3%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 1–1✓ 10.1%

#5 0–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mash'al0.5

Nasaf1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MASH'AL · PPG 0.50

NASAF · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

xG gap -1.04 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mash'al (H) 14.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -12.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Nasaf (A) 59.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mash'al face Nasaf in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mash'al a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Nasaf 60%, so Nasaf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Mash'al and 1.5 for Nasaf (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mash'al are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Nasaf. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +69.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Mash'al vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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