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Mash'al vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 15:00

Mash'al logo
Mash'al
PPG 0.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Nasaf logo
Nasaf
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-119.9%0-215.2%0-37.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.1%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-01.7%2-12.6%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 14.3%
Draw 26.0%
Away win 59.7%
Over 2.5 43.4%
Over 3.5 22.9%
BTTS 46.7%
Home O1.5 23.7%
Away O1.5 48.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob46.7%

A 60% / xG 0.5-1.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.9%
#2 0–2 15.2%
#3 0–0 13.0%
#4 1–1 10.1%
#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mash'al0.5
Nasaf1.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MASH'AL · PPG 0.50

NASAF · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Mash'al (H) 14.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Nasaf (A) 59.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mash'al face Nasaf in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mash'al a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Nasaf 60%, so Nasaf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Mash'al and 1.5 for Nasaf (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mash'al are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Nasaf.

PredictVantage

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