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Kokand-1912 vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 15:00

Kokand-1912

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olmaliq

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.7%0-27.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-17.2%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 27.0% 3.70 +39.9%

Draw 27.0% 34.5% 2.90 -13.0%

Away win 35.2% 52.4% 1.91 -32.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.5% 3.92 +7.5%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 27.5% 3.64 +27.4%

Away O1.5 37.7% 45.7% 2.19 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

H 38% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kokand-19121.1

Olmaliq1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KOKAND-1912 · PPG 1.60

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kokand-1912 (H) 37.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +39.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.0%

Olmaliq (A) 35.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kokand-1912 face Olmaliq in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kokand-1912 a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Olmaliq 35%, so Kokand-1912 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kokand-1912 and 1.3 for Olmaliq (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kokand-1912 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Olmaliq. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Kokand-1912 vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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