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Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 00:00

Universidad Catolica

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Barcelona SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.6%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 52.6% 1.90 -5.6%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Over 3.5 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 31.3% 3.20 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad Catolica1.4

Barcelona SC0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 2.00

BARCELONA SC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad Catolica (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Barcelona SC (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad Catolica face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad Catolica a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Barcelona SC 24%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Universidad Catolica and 0.8 for Barcelona SC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad Catolica are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Barcelona SC. This match finished 2-1.

Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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