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Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 00:00

Universidad Catolica

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barcelona SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.8%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.2%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-18.5%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 52.6% 1.90 -5.8%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Over 3.5 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

BTTS 48.4% 56.5% 1.77 -14.3%

Home O1.5 43.3% 50.0% 2.00 -13.4%

Away O1.5 20.7% 30.3% 3.30 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad Catolica1.4

Barcelona SC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 2.00

BARCELONA SC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.6%

Win probability 1X2

Universidad Catolica (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Barcelona SC (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad Catolica face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad Catolica a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Barcelona SC 24%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Universidad Catolica and 0.7 for Barcelona SC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad Catolica are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Barcelona SC.

Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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