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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

UPCOMING

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.5%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 44.1% 57.8% 1.73 -23.7%

Away O1.5 19.4% 23.1% 4.33 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.5

Gwangju FC0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 0.92

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Gwangju FC (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Gwangju FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Gwangju FC 23%, so Gimcheon Sangmu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.7 for Gwangju FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.42 for Gwangju FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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