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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Bucheon FC 1995

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

UPCOMING

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.6%0-27.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-17.1%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 24.4% 4.10 +36.1%

Draw 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Away win 40.7% 54.6% 1.83 -25.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.6% 1.90 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.6% 1.90 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC 19951.1

Daejeon Citizen1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC 1995 · PPG 1.07

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC 1995 (H) 33.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +36.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 40.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC 1995 face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Daejeon Citizen 41%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.4 for Daejeon Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.38 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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