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Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Jeonbuk Motors

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

UPCOMING

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-111.3%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.3%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-17.8%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

Draw 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.2%

Away win 26.9% 23.1% 4.33 +9.9%

Over 2.5 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 32.5% 50.0% 2.00 -35.0%

Away O1.5 25.6% 27.0% 3.70 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk Motors1.2

Pohang Steelers0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK MOTORS · PPG 1.67

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk Motors (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.7%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.2%

Pohang Steelers (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk Motors face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Pohang Steelers 27%, so Jeonbuk Motors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.9 for Pohang Steelers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +2.0%.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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