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Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:30

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-112.3%0-28.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 30.3% 3.30 +2.6%

Draw 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

Away win 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 56.5% 1.77 -6.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC1.1

Daejeon Citizen1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.20

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.5%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 42%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jeju United FC and 1.3 for Daejeon Citizen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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