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Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

UPCOMING

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.1%0-26.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 33.9% 2.95 +8.3%

Draw 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -4.9%

Away win 36.7% 44.4% 2.25 -17.4%

Over 2.5 53.3% 54.6% 1.83 -2.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 34.3% 40.0% 2.50 -14.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC1.2

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.31

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +8.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.9%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Ulsan Hyundai FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, so Jeju United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jeju United FC and 1.4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.62 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.5%.

Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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