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FC Seoul vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

FC Seoul

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Incheon United

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.7%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Away win 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 32.3% 28.6% 3.50 +13.1%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Away O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Seoul1.6

Incheon United1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SEOUL · PPG 1.92

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Seoul (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Incheon United (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Seoul face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Seoul a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Incheon United 23%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Seoul and 1.0 for Incheon United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Seoul are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.58 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%.

FC Seoul vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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