Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors

Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:30

Incheon United

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Jeonbuk Motors

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-114.9%0-28.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.2%2-16.0%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 38.8% 42.9% 2.33 -9.6%

Over 2.5 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.1% 2.85 -11.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon United0.9

Jeonbuk Motors1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.17

JEONBUK MOTORS · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.24, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Incheon United (H) 31.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.9%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Jeonbuk Motors (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon United face Jeonbuk Motors in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon United a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Jeonbuk Motors 39%, so Jeonbuk Motors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Incheon United and 1.1 for Jeonbuk Motors (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon United are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.38 for Jeonbuk Motors. This match finished 1-1.

Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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