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Rabotnicki vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:00

Rabotnicki

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aresimi

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+19.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.8%0-26.6%0-34.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-36.0%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 47.6% 2.10 -40.4%

Draw 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -29.3%

Away win 49.5% 33.3% 3.00 +48.5%

Over 2.5 64.8% 54.1% 1.85 +19.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 64.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.7%

A 50% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rabotnicki1.4

Aresimi1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RABOTNICKI · PPG 1.00

ARESIMI · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Rabotnicki (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -40.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -29.3%

Aresimi (A) 49.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rabotnicki face Aresimi in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rabotnicki a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Aresimi 50%, so Aresimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rabotnicki and 1.9 for Aresimi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rabotnicki are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.21 for Aresimi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Rabotnicki vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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