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HK Kopavogur vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 19:15

HK Kopavogur

PPG 2.71 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vestri

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.1%1-15.8%1-24.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-110.9%4+-27.6%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Draw 17.3% 23.8% 4.20 -16.4%

Away win 19.4% 25.0% 4.00 -13.4%

Over 2.5 72.3% 75.2% 1.33 -3.8%

Over 3.5 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

BTTS 63.8% 73.5% 1.36 -13.2%

Home O1.5 76.2% 72.5% 1.38 +5.2%

Away O1.5 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur2.8

Vestri1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 2.71

VESTRI · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.4%

Vestri (A) 19.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Vestri in Iceland on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 63% chance, the draw 17% and Vestri 19%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for HK Kopavogur and 1.4 for Vestri (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Vestri. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 6-2.

HK Kopavogur vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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