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Keflavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 19:15

Keflavik

PPG 1.29 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IA Akranes

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.7%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.7%1-111.2%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 43.5% 2.30 +12.0%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 26.8% 39.2% 2.55 -19.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 71.4% 1.40 -14.7%

Over 3.5 37.4% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

BTTS 62.4% 75.2% 1.33 -17.0%

Home O1.5 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Away O1.5 37.7% 55.6% 1.80 -32.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik1.7

IA Akranes1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.29

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

IA Akranes (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face IA Akranes in Iceland on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 49% chance, the draw 24% and IA Akranes 27%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Keflavik and 1.3 for IA Akranes (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.25 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 5-2.

Keflavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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