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Kormakur/Hvot vs Dalvik.Reynir Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 17:00

Kormakur/Hvot

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalvik.Reynir

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.0%1-18.4%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-17.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 48.8% 2.05 +19.5%

Draw 21.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

Away win 19.8% 35.7% 2.80 -26.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 62.5% 1.60 +2.2%

Over 3.5 41.1% 47.2% 2.12 -12.9%

BTTS 60.0% 69.4% 1.44 -13.6%

Home O1.5 62.9% 59.2% 1.69 +6.3%

Away O1.5 36.2% 48.5% 2.06 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormakur/Hvot2.3

Dalvik.Reynir1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMAKUR/HVOT · PPG 2.00

DALVIK.REYNIR · PPG 1.17

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kormakur/Hvot (H) 58.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +19.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.3%

Dalvik.Reynir (A) 19.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormakur/Hvot face Dalvik.Reynir in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormakur/Hvot a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Dalvik.Reynir 20%, so Kormakur/Hvot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Kormakur/Hvot and 1.1 for Dalvik.Reynir (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormakur/Hvot are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Dalvik.Reynir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Kormakur/Hvot vs Dalvik.Reynir Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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